For anyone that has taken a class or has experience with regression modelling, they will be familiar with the common error term that that accounts for “everything else” outside of the variables being assessed. Without trying to immediately bore the reader with a refresh of statistical analysis, the COVID pandemic has caused this error term to balloon to such effect that traditional considerations when making travel decisions need a re-think. Having a travel budget ready to go and a good price from an airline is no longer all that is needed to get a person on plane.
Border closures, enhanced travel requirements, and lockdowns at origins and destinations have all contributed to the variability in how travellers make decisions, which ultimately effects demand levels.
Passenger Demand Shifts
Prior to the pandemic, air access was a major constituent part of travel demand. Makes sense. If air services are not readily available, then demand cannot be satiated. Data from IATA in their May Air Passenger Market Analysis indicates the changes to load factor, or percentage of seats filled, for key markets for May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. The key take-out from the findings is that load factors are depressed against historical norms. In other words, passengers are not willing or able to travel in line with what airlines have previously expected.
Market (Domestic and International) | Load factor % pts difference |
| Africa | -14.8% |
| Asia Pacific | -12.6% |
| Europe | -24.4% |
| Latin America | -6.5% |
| Middle East | -34.1% |
| North America | -13.3% |
While this is an oversimplification to some degree, it nonetheless illustrates the point. The importance of other factors has risen considerably.
It is perhaps likened to an inverse relationship shown in the chart below. Prior to the pandemic, traditional drivers of demand ranked high compared with background “noise” factors. Now, traditional considerations have taken a back seat. As the COVID pandemic matures and eventually becomes a relic of history, this relationship is likely to return to some degree of normality. Until then though, these error terms will continue to cause pain for travellers and the travel industry.
What is a traveller to do?
Information. Lockdowns, border closures, and ever-changing travel requirements leads travellers down the path of taking even more charge of their own destiny. While travellers have always taken responsibility for ensuring they meet government and airline requirements, these were fairly straight forward and well known. The pandemic has caused a shift in the workload for travellers. The question is then, how can this workload be managed or minimised?
Safescore provides a solution to this problem by consolidating travel quarantine, COVID information, testing requirements, and border entry information onto a single platform. The goal is to reduce the workload for travellers and provide insights that can build confidence.